After a slight acceleration in the September quarter driven by consumption including the government variety, India’s economy had already shifted into low gear when the currency crunch hit it. The expansion of gross domestic product (GDP) will slow to 7.1% in the current financial year from 7.6% in 2015-16, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Friday, releasing the first advance estimate.
The CSO said it had had the benefit of the first-half GDP growth figure of 7.2% and several other subsequent high-frequency data points up to October and a peek into the (unreleased) November industrial production, but shied away from gauging demonetisation’s impact.
However, the amorphous nature of the estimate, pulled back by a month to suit the government’s plan for an early Budget, will make budget-making tougher. The uncertainty over the goods and services tax (GST) had already obscured policymakers’ foresight.
While extrapolating the available data for the full year, the government’s statisticians exercised extra caution to not enter into speculation — the segment of “financial, insurance, real estate and professional services”, for instance, has been estimated without factoring in the high volatility since November 10 on aggregate bank deposits as it was an outlier. Justifying this, chief statistician TCA Anant said the CSO shunned any “untried, unverified method to make adjustments to the GDP” and stuck to its good housekeeping practices.
However, the CSO — which says real GDP will expand just 7% in the second half of the year — expects government’s already robust consumption spending to increase further. It expects nominal GDP to grow 11.9% over FY16 to R51.9 lakh crore, even higher than the R150.6 lakh crore budgeted. This, however, looked optimistic.
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