Is Indian team a hot favourite to win gold?

The Indian chess team eased into the fourth round of the 45th Chess Olympiad with just one draw in the 12 games they have played across the three rounds in Budapest.
Team India is the second seeded team at the 45th Chess Olympiad in Budapest with a rating average of 2753 while the United States of America are the top seeds (rating average of 2757). China (2724), Uzbekan (2690) and Netherlands (2682) round out the top 5.
Here is what chess legends and top grandmasters have said about India’s chances of winning gold at the Chess Olympiad in Budapest:
“This is certainly the strongest team India has ever sent to a Chess Olympiad. They have a pretty decent chance of winning the gold medal, and a fair chance of winning a medal. Although this is the same team that India has sent to the 2023 Asian Games (where they won silver). I think everyone has certainly become stronger in the last one year,” Srinath Narayanan, the captain of the Indian team, had told The Indian Express in an interview before flying to Budapest.
Arjun Erigaisi and Praggnanandhaa at the Chess Olympiad 2024 in Budapest. (PHOTO: FIDE / Michal Walusza)
Chess legend Viswanathan Anand said the Indian team at the Chess Olympiad was “formidable”.
“Events (like the Chess Olympiad) are tough. India has a formidable team, but we have so many good teams who can give them a fight. Medal is no means assured. There will be these dramatic days, where your whole tournament gets decided. Having such a good bench gives us those good odds, whenever those critical moments come. It’s a luxury (having so many good players). But at the same time it’s a bit like these menus with too many choices. You have too many options and the captain starts going nuts. What can be nice is that once in a while if one player says, ‘I would rather sit out this match, why don’t you play?’ But when you’re playing, you want to be in your routine. So this is a magic potion to be used sparingly,” Anand told The Indian Express before the event started.
One of the greatest chess players of all time, Judit Polgar, said in a chat on New in Chess magazine’s podcast: “Of course India is there (as one of the favourites). But they will also play with pressure because, let’s face it, now there are expectations. It’s a completely different mindset. Two years ago at Chennai, when they (the Indian B team) played at the Olympiad, everybody thought they can do something. The Uzbek guys will of course want to defend their title, if they show team spirit, work ethic and if they get luck, (they can win).”
Susan Polar tweeted: “You can see and feel the confidence around these young players! They are fearless fighters!”
Are India favorites to win gold at Chess Olympiad?
Top-seeded USA could have been even more formidable had their top ranked player, Hikaru Nakamura, chosen to play at the Chess Olympiad. He skipped saying he had no incentive to play because the tournament does not provide points for the Candidates cycle.
“India are very formidable. I do know that for India, Arjun will not be playing on Board 1, so if Pragg is in form and Gukesh plays decently, India will be very formidable. I don’t see any way in which this team is not the clear favourite,” Hikaru Nakamura had said on his own YouTube channel.
He had also pointed out how there were questions that remained unanswered about the top seeded American team like Wesley So’s form, because, as Nakmura said, he had not been in great form over the last year in the classical format.
Fabiano Caruana, who plays on the top board for Team USA in the absence of Nakamura, made a tier l on his YouTube channel where he ranked teams on the basis of their chances of winning the gold medal in the open section. He put India and USA in the top tier while China, who has world champion Ding Liren, and defending champion Uzbekan were in his second tier.
“India have no weak links basically. If things go well for their players then you could see them as a favourite basically against everyone. India could mix it up however they like (the board order) and it would all make sense. They have all good players,” Caruana said.
“Being one of the favorites, I am definitely aware of the expectations that fans have (from us), but when it comes to the players, everyone is used to playing in high-stakes situations. I don’t think we are taking any unnecessary pressure just yet. Probably towards the end of the tournament, it will increase and at that point it would be all about nerves,” Vidit Gujrathi had told The Indian Express before the Chess Olympiad started.