How can India qualify for WTC final 2025 after Adelaide Test loss to Australia? Qualification scenarios explained | Cricket News

India’s chances to qualify for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final took a massive hit after losing the Pink-Ball Test to Australia 10 wickets in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Adelaide on Sunday.
India’s points percentage slipped from 61.11 to 57.29 with a loss and Rohit Sharma’s side also dropped out of the top two, below defending champions Australia and parallel contenders South Africa. India will only have three more Tests in this series to make amends and qualify for a third successive WTC final. The challenge has stiffened after their sixth Test defeat and a fourth in two months since their 0-3 whitewash at home against New Zealand.
IND vs AUS 2nd Test Day 3 Live
Australia’s ninth win of the ongoing cycle shored up their PCT from 57.69 to 60.71 ahead of second-ranked South Africa (59.26) who could leapfrog the defending champions should they win the second Test against Sri Lanka in Gqeberha.
How many defeats can India afford from here?
To qualify for the WTC 2025 final without depending on others, India cannot afford another defeat in their remaining three matches. Moreover, India can only afford a maximum of one draw and win two games to finish on a PCT of 60.52. With three outright wins, Rohit and Co. can accumulate 146 points at a commanding 64.05 PCT which cannot be overhauled Australia. That would require India to pull off a stunning 3-2 coup Down Under against the defending WTC champions.
India’s WTC final scenarios

If India beat Australia 3-2, they will finish with 134 points and a PCT of 58.77. With only two Tests left after this series in Sri Lanka, Australia can then finish at best with 126 points and a 55.26 PCT. Simultaneously, South Africa could extend their PCT up to 69.44 with three wins in their remaining home games against Sri Lanka and Pakan.
If India beat Australia 3-1, they will finish with 138 points and a PCT of 60.52. Australia will only be able to finish with a 57 PCT then, should they win their remaining games in Sri Lanka, effectively knocking them out of the race.
If India draw Australia 2-2, they will finish with 126 points and a PCT of 57.01. Australia, in such a scenario, can move ahead to 130 points the end of the series and knock India out of the WTC final race.

WTC Points Table ahead of IND vs AUS 2nd Test Day 3

Pos.

Team

Matches

Points Contested

Pts.

PCT

P
W
L
D

1
Australia
14
9
4
1
168
102
60.71

2
South Africa
9
5
3
1
108
64
59.26

3
India
16
9
6
1
192
110
57.29

4
Sri Lanka
10
5
5
0
120
60
50

5
England
21
11
9
1
252
114
44.44

6
New Zealand
13
6
7
0
144
69
47.92

7
Pakan
10
4
6
0
120
40
33.33

8
Bangladesh (E)
12
4
8
0
144
45
31.25

9
West Indies (E)
11
2
7
2
132
32
24.24