After economic collapse, Lebanon’s May 15 elections offer little hope for change

Getting rid of Lebanon’s well-entrenched corrupt and inept ruling political class, accused of being responsible for bringing the country almost deliberately to collapse and impoverishing its population, is unlikely to happen at the upcoming parliamentary elections, analysts and experts say.

The May 15 legislative elections will be the first since street protests on Oct. 17, 2019, turned into a popular, cross-sectarian uprising and unleashed widespread anger against the country’s political leaders, most of whom have been in power for more than 30 years.

With Lebanon in free-fall for more than two years, it should be a make-or-break vote for the country’s ruling class. Their decades-long grip on power has driven one of the Middle East’s most spirited countries to ruin.

The May 15 elections for parliament are the first since Lebanon’s economic meltdown began in late 2019. The government’s factions have done virtually nothing to address the collapse, leaving Lebanese to fend for themselves as they plunge into poverty, without electricity, medicine, garbage collection or any other semblance of normal life.

These are also the first elections since the August 4, 2020, catastrophic explosion at Beirut port that killed more than 215 people and wrecked large parts of the city. The destruction sparked widespread outrage at the traditional parties’ endemic corruption and mismanagement.

For the past two-and-a-half years, the Lebanese have had to struggle with growing poverty and unemployment, a dramatic decline in state services, and skyrocketing prices of food, gasoline and diesel fuel that depleted their savings amid strict bank restrictions.

In accordance with the Lebanese practice of political confessionalism, the Lebanese religious communities distribute reserved seats in the different constituencies according to their demographic weight. The distribution of votes is proportional.

Once all the ballot papers have been counted, the total of valid votes in each constituency is divided by the number of seats to be filled, which gives the electoral threshold necessary for a list to obtain a seat.

The distribution of seats is done between the lists having reached this quorum proportionally according to the percentage of votes obtained, then within the lists in accordance with the denominational quotas and the number of preferential votes obtained by the candidates.

Yet instead of uniting, self-declared opposition groups are divided along ideological lines on virtually every issue, including over how to revive the economy.

As a result, there are an average of at least three different opposition lists in each of the 15 electoral districts, a 20% increase from the 2018 elections. A total of 103 lists with 1,044 candidates are vying for the 128-seat legislature, which is equally divided between Christians and Muslims.

Many are dreading the prospective outcome.

Lebanon’s rulers, many of them warlords and militia holdovers from the days of the 1975-90 civil war, have proven extremely resilient.

They hang on to their seats from one election to the next and can behave with impunity in power, largely because the sectarian power-sharing system and an antiquated electoral law virtually guarantee their spots in parliament.

With the Shiites, led by Hezbollah, running the elections in one firm bloc and the Sunnis, Christian opposition parties and the “revolution” candidates divided and dispersed in dozens of electoral lists, it is impossible to expect any real change.