Can India qualify for WTC final if they lose Mumbai Test to New Zealand? Qualification scenarios explained | Cricket News

India’s chances to qualify for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) will suffer a massive slump if they lose the third Test at the Wankhede Stadium and receive a series white-wash at the hands of New Zealand on Sunday.
After Jadeja’s 10-wicket match haul with two five-fors, India were set a 147-run target. However, the hosts suffered a massive collapse, leaving them five down for 28. A defeat here could mean catastrophic for India’s chances, with their remaining five Tests to be played against Australia, Down Under.
New Zealand’s 2-0 series lead in Pune had meant India’s WTC points percentage (PCT) dipped from above 74 percent to 62.82 per cent within eight days. However, Rohit Sharma’s team still clings on to the top spot, with a slender lead over second-placed Australia at 62.50.
Besides Australia and New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka are the other teams that can hamper India’s chances in the remainder of this cycle.
How many defeats can India afford from here?
To qualify without depending on others, India cannot afford another defeat in their remaining six matches. Moreover, India can only afford a maximum of one draw and win five games to finish on a PCT of 71.05. With six outright wins, Rohit and Co. can accumulate 170 points at a commanding 74.56 PCT. That would require India to pull off a stunning 5-0 coup Down Under against the defending WTC champions.
Other scenarios for India
A minimum of two wins will keep India in contention for a fight with other results also swaying their way. To maintain their PCT over 60, India must win at least two Tests and draw four matches.
India’s parallel WTC contenders
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka are in with a outside chance of making the WTC final, should they win all of their remaining games and India lose hold of points along the way. Sri Lanka have four Tests remaining – two against South Africa away and two against Australia later in 2025. Currently placed third with a PCT of 55.56, Sri Lanka can finish with 108 points with four successive wins. That would elevate the Lankans to a PCT of 69.23, which India can better only with at least five more wins (PCT then – 69.29) in their remaining matches.
South Africa
With a crucial series win in Bangladesh, South Africa are slowly climbing up in the WTC ladder. The Proteas have two home series remaining against Sri Lanka and Pakan, with two Tests apiece. With wins in all of these matches, South Africa can finish with a PCT of 69.44, leaving India with a challenge of not conceding another defeat and drawing only one game to secure a minimum of 71.05 PCT with five wins.
New Zealand
The BlackCaps have emerged as the surprise thorn to India’s WTC hopes. With a win in Pune, New Zealand’s PCT rose to 50 percent. Besides the Mumbai Test, they will have three more Tests at home against England. With four more wins, former champions New Zealand can finish on a best PCT of 64.28, which could come in play should other results favour them in the rest of the cycle.
Australia
It is highly unlikely that India and Australia will make it to the WTC final together despite holding onto the top two spots currently. Australia can secure their berth with four wins from their remaining seven Tests – five at home against India and two against Sri Lanka.
Current WTC 2023-25 Points Table

Pos.

Team

Matches

Ded.

PTS contested

Points

PCT

P
W
L
D

1
India
13
8
4
1
2
156
98
62.82

2
Australia
12
8
3
1
10
144
90
62.5

3
Sri Lanka
9
5
4
0
0
108
60
55.56

4
South Africa
8
4
3
1
0
96
52
54.16

5
New Zealand
10
5
5
0
0
120
60
50

6
England
19
9
9
1
19
228
93
40.79

7
Pakan
10
4
6
0
8
120
40
33.33

8
Bangladesh
10
3
7
0
3
120
33
27.5

9
West Indies
9
1
6
2
0
108
20
18.52