How can Arjun Erigaisi and Vaishali qualify for Candidates through Grand Swiss? Check all scenarios, result, pairings and standings of final round

The FIDE Grand Swiss 2025 chess tournament is in its business end with the 11th and final round underway in Samarkand, Uzbekan on Monday. The Indian duo of Arjun Erigaisi (Open Section) and R. Vaishali (Women’s Section) are running for the top two places and a big contenders in the race for the Candidates Tournament 2026 spot.
Here are all the qualification scenarios for Arjun and Vaishali’s Candidates qualification.
How can Arjun Erigaisi qualify for the Candidates Tournament 2026?
Arjun is currently eighth in the leaderboard with 6.5 points from 10 rounds. While nine players have 6.5 points in the Open Section, only Arjun, Abhimanyu Mishra, and Andy Woodward have a mathematical chance to finish in second place and win the Candidates spot.
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For Arjun to qualify, he must first beat Vincent Keymer in the final round. A win would take him to 7.5 points, eliminating Keymer at 7 points.
Here are the critical final (11th) round pairings:

Matthias Bluebaum (7) vs Alireza Firouzja (7)
Anish Giri (7) vs Hans Moke Niemann (7)
Arjun Erigaisi (6.5) vs Vincent Keymer (7)
Vidit Santosh Gujrathi (6.5) vs Abhimanyu Mishra (6.5)

Matthias Bluebaum and Alireza Firouzja, both on 7 points, play each other. Regardless of the result (win, loss, or draw), only one of them will finish ahead of Arjun (if Arjun wins). If Bluebaum and Firouzja draw their game and Arjun wins, all three players will get to 7.5 points, but Firouzja has the worst tiebreaks among them, so in this case, Arjun and Bluebaum qualify. This means Arjun is effectively competing for the second spot.
Therefore, the only way for Arjun to qualify is if:

He defeats Vincent Keymer.
The game between Anish Giri and Hans Niemann ends in a draw.
The game between Vidit Gujrathi and Abhimanyu Mishra ends in a draw (preventing Mishra, who has strong tiebreaks, from getting to 7.5 points).

If any one of these conditions fails, Arjun’s chances are over.Story continues below this ad
FIDE Grand Swiss Leaderboard: Open Section

Rk.
Name
FED
Rtg
Pts.
TB1
TB2
TB3

1
Matthias Bluebaum
GER
2671
7
2688
54,5
58

2
Alireza Firouzja
FRA
2754
7
2685
52,5
56,5

3
Anish Giri
NED
2746
7
2661
50
54

4
Hans Moke Niemann
USA
2733
7
2660
48
52

5
Vincent Keymer
GER
2751
7
2657
50
54,5

6
Abhimanyu Mishra
USA
2611
6,5
2733
57
60,5

7
Andy Woodward
USA
2557
6,5
2683
49,5
52,5

8
Arjun Erigaisi
IND
2771
6,5
2680
50
54

9
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
UZB
2748
6,5
2659
52,5
57

10
Nihal Sarin
IND
2693
6,5
2658
51
55

11
Awonder Liang
USA
2698
6,5
2649
44
48

12
Santosh Gujrathi Vidit
IND
2712
6,5
2643
49,5
54

13
Yu Yangyi
CHN
2714
6,5
2643
49
54

14
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
FRA
2738
6,5
2630
50,5
54,5

Top board pairings in Round 11 of Open Section

Matthias Bluebaum (7) – 2671 vs Alireza Firouzja (7) – 2754
Anish Giri (7) – 2746 vs Hans Moke Niemann (7) – 2733
Arjun Erigaisi (6½) – 2771 vs Vincent Keymer (7) – 2751
Nodirbek Abdusattorov (6½) – 2748 vs Awonder Liang (6½) – 2698
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (6½) – 2738 vs Nihal Sarin (6½) – 2693
Andy Woodward (6½) – 2557 vs Yu Yangyi (6½) – 2714
Vidit Santosh Gujrathi (6½) – 2712 vs Abhimanyu Mishra (6½) – 2611
Andrey Esipenko (6) – 2687 vs Ian Nepomniachtchi (6) – 2742
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (6) – 2741 vs Grigoriy Oparin (6) – 2660
Nodirbek Yakubboev (6) – 2681 vs Vladimir Fedoseev (6) – 2731

How can Vaishali qualify for the Candidates Tournament 2026?
Vaishali is jointly leading the Women’s Section with 7.5 points, tied with Kateryna Lagno. The simplest path for her to qualify for the Women’s Candidates for the second time in a row is to win or even just draw her final round match against China’s Tan Zhongyi.
However, the defending FIDE Grand Swiss champion faces an extremely tough opponent in Tan, who has already secured her own place in the upcoming Women’s Candidates. Since Vaishali has 7.5 points and very strong tiebreaks, there remains an outside chance she could qualify even with a loss, as the second Candidates spot from this event would not go to Tan.
FIDE Grand Swiss Leaderboard: Women’s Section

Rk.
Name
FED
Rtg
Pts.
TB1
TB2
TB3

1
Kateryna Lagno
FID
2505
7,5
2438
54
58

2
Vaishali Rameshbabu
IND
2452
7,5
2424
55
59,5

3
Zhongyi Tan
CHN
2531
7
2419
49
52

4
Yuxin Song
CHN
2409
7
2416
53
56

5
Bibisara Assaubayeva
KAZ
2505
7
2413
53,5
57,5

6
Ulviyya Fataliyeva
AZE
2385
6,5
2456
55
60

7
Irina Krush
USA
2366
6,5
2420
45,5
49

Top board pairings in Round 11 of Women’s Section

Tan Zhongyi (7) – 2531 vs Vaishali Rameshbabu (7½) – 2452
Kateryna Lagno (7½) – 2505 vs Ulviyya Fataliyeva (6½) – 2385
Irina Krush (6½) – 2366 vs Yuxin Song (7) – 2409
Bibisara Assaubayeva (7) – 2505 vs Anna Muzychuk (6) – 2535
Mariya Muzychuk (6) – 2484 vs Elina Danielian (6) – 2405
Alexandra Kosteniuk (6) – 2472 vs Qi Guo (6) – 2371
Stavroula Tsolakidou (5½) – 2445 vs Polina Shuvalova (5½) – 2492
Mo Zhai (5½) – 2380 vs Miaoyi Lu (5½) – 2449
Antoaneta Stefanova (5½) – 2395 vs Mai Narva (5½) – 2386
Olga Girya (5½) – 2386 vs Aleksandra Maltsevskaya (5½) – 2379