Despite discontent, midterm voters did not kick out incumbents

High inflation. President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings. Polls showing that a majority of Americans were dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
The overall landscape heading into the 2022 midterm elections looked bleak for incumbents across the country, and for Democratic ones in particular, as many braced to feel voters’ outrage after Republican-led attacks on crime, immigration and high food and gas prices. But early tallies show that voters have mostly opted to keep their members of Congress.
Of more than 365 House dricts in which an incumbent faced reelection, only six Democrats have so far lost their seats: Cindy Axne of Iowa, Elaine Luria of Virginia, Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, Al Lawson of Florida and Tom O’Halleran of Arizona. All six were competing in places where redricting had made their chances harder.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) at a news conference with Arizona Republican leaders outside the state Capitol in Phoenix, November 7, 2022. (Ilana Panich-Linsman/The New York Times)
On the Republican side, that number stands at three: Steve Chabot of Ohio, Mayra Flores of Texas and Yvette Herrell of New Mexico.
In the Senate, no incumbent has lost reelection yet, although three Democrats in battleground states — Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia — remain in heated races.
“Without the most vulnerable Democratic races settled, it is hard to draw sweeping conclusions,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes congressional races. “But so far, there doesn’t seem to have been — in either chamber — an anti-incumbent wave.”
If Cortez Masto, Kelly and Warnock hold on, Rubashkin added, it will be the first time that no Senate incumbent has lost a general election since 1914. That was the first election after the ratification of the 17th Amendment, which provided for the popular election of senators rather than their appointment state legislatures.
In the Senate, no incumbent has lost reelection yet, although three Democrats in battleground states — Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia — remain in heated races. (Ilana Panich-Linsman/The New York Times)
Democrats attribute their victories to strong candidates, robust fundraising and effective messaging on abortion and on legislative accomplishments like a major bipartisan infrastructure package and measures to lower the costs of prescription drugs. “Our members were able to show that they were delivering for their communities in real ways,” said Chris Hayden, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
They also pointed to the weaknesses of Republican candidates who were endorsed former President Donald Trump, some of whom amplified lies of a 2020 stolen election and took absolut stances on abortion, both of which Democrats attacked as extrem.
Republicans countered that they had, in effect, defeated the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents even before the midterm campaign began.
“We spent the early part of the cycle aggressively coaxing Democrats into retirement,” said Calvin Moore, a spokesperson for the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super political action committee devoted to electing House Republicans. “So a huge number of the competitive seats were open seats. If their candidates are so strong, why did they all run for the hills?”
The full picture is more complex, and it remains fluid.
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Election officials have not finished counting ballots in close races in two battleground states, Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, Kelly, a Democrat who won a special election in 2020 to fill the Senate seat of John McCain after his death, has been slightly ahead of his Republican challenger, Blake Masters. And a House Republican incumbent in a competitive drict there, Rep. David Schweikert, was only slightly trailing his Democratic opponent.
But those results could change as election officials begin counting hundreds of thousands of ballots cast on Election Day that could favor Republicans.
In Nevada, Cortez Masto, a Democrat, has been locked in a fierce contest with her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general, with votes still being tallied.
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On Friday evening, The Associated Press reported that three of Nevada’s Democratic incumbents in the House beat their Republican opponents. But the state’s Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, lost his race to Joseph Lombardo, the Trump-backed Clark County sheriff who ran as a law-and-order Republican.
Several tight races in competitive dricts across the country have not yet been called, including those of a House Democratic incumbent in Maine and four in California.
In Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a centr Republican seeking a fourth full term in Washington, and her Trump-backed Republican rival, Kelly Tshibaka, are headed toward a ranked-choice finale under the state’s new election system. In Georgia, Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, and his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, are headed to a December runoff election.
Nonpartisan election analysts said the lack of losses among Democratic incumbents appeared to be a testament to strong candidates who ran strong campaigns and showed they took heated races seriously. Those included Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, who promoted his work on bills to expand infrastructure funding, promote domestic manufacturing of semiconductors and reduce childhood poverty.
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In Washington state, Sen. Patty Murray, who won a sixth term, faced a strong Republican challenge but clinched victory trumpeting legislation on climate, reducing prescription drug costs and protecting abortion rights.
Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota trounced her Republican challenger, Tyler Kner, in one of the closest House races in the country centering her campaign on abortion rights and promoting endorsements from law enforcement officials. In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a centr Democrat, focused on abortion and her work on infrastructure and tackling gun violence and won her race.
Spanberger also portrayed her opponent, Yesli Vega, as an extrem after she was recorded describing people arrested in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol as unfairly persecuted and falsely suggesting that pregnancy from rape was unlikely because “it’s not something that’s happening organically.”
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Money has also played a role. Kelly, who has a path to victory in Arizona, and Reps. Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan were among Democrats in competitive electoral contests who far outdanced their challengers in fundraising and emerged victorious.
For Republican incumbents, voters’ discontent worked to their advantage. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson, a right-wing Republican given to spreading misinformation, won a third term, turning back a challenge from Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in one of the country’s ugliest contests and the most expensive in Wisconsin hory.
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Johnson and his allies blitzed Barnes with ads portraying him as a soft-on-crime, anti-American radical. He won a single percentage point, even as the state’s incumbent governor, Tony Evers, a Democrat, was reelected a comfortable margin.