Experts see little hope in Ukraine-Russia talks

It has been more than 45 days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Russia has diverted its forces from around Kyiv, which is the capital, and other regions in the north towards east and south, focusing on the Donbas region, negotiations between the two countries have not resulted in anything concrete yet.
Whether Russia is negotiating in good faith; which countries will offer security guarantees to Ukraine against Russia as part of its deal; will it agree to a deal without Russian troops leaving its territories in Donbas; can Ukraine convince its own people for a deal without achieving “victory”; and how will any deal be approved with martial law in place in Ukraine — these are some of the main stumbling blocks that are likely to prevent a concrete deal being reached between the two nations at war, according to several German, Polish and American experts, officials and analysts The Indian Express interacted with in Germany over the past week.
Discussing the issue off-record, these experts said that there are several problems with the ongoing negotiations from both Russian and Ukrainian sides.

ExplainedA frozen conflictOfficials and experts feel that the war will now become a frozen conflict, which can continue for years. Many also feel that Russia is likely to keep pushing as much as it can for another month, till early May. Putin, they feel, will need to show something for victory of his objectives May 9, which is when Russia celebrates the ‘Victory Day;.

Ukraine has proposed to Russia that it will be willing to let go off its aspirations to join the NATO and opt for neutrality in lieu of security guarantees from other countries. But many experts believe that this is not going to work out.

Russia, America and the UK had signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, providing security assurances to Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, convincing them to bring them under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Ukraine had given up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal for security assurances from the signatories. However, experts said that, while the assurances were not guarantees and may not have had been binding, but the ongoing war has demonstrated that no other country, including the US, is willing to send its troops to help Ukraine as they do not want to risk a direct war with Russia, leading to a potential nuclear conflict.
Second, officials and experts feel that even as Ukraine has impressed the world with its resolute defence, especially around Kyiv, Russia is unwilling to let go off its offensives in east and south, in Donbas region and Black Sea.