FIFA World Cup: Why do quality footballers frequently miss from the penalty spot

Harry Kane can lob the ball from the halfway line directly over the ’keeper’s head and into the goal. He can curl one into the top corner from 25 yards out, while being surrounded defenders. But when put in a one-on-one situation with the goalkeeper from 12 yards, during a tense World Cup quarterfinal against France, the England captain blazed the ball over the crossbar.
Kane, in that sense, put himself in elite company. Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski, Jordan Ayew, Sergio Busquets, Rodrygo and Virgil van Dijk are some of the other players who have been denied from the spot either in-game or during shootouts at this World Cup.
Until the Round of 16, the ratio of penalties saved at this World Cup was the highest since the 1982 edition, when shootouts were introduced. At World Cups, as per the website goalkeepers.com, 18.3 per cent of penalties that are on target get saved on average; and the figure is close to the 17.3 per cent mark in the Premier League over the last 18 years. In Qatar, that figure reached 37.9 per cent till the last-16 stage. The quarterfinals saw crucial penalties saved or missed during decisive moments, having a huge bearing on the outcome.
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One would assume players with flawless techniques, who can make the ball act as per their will, would be able to put the ball into the 24 ft wide, 8 ft high goal, with just one person to beat, from 12 yards. But it’s never been that easy.
The long walk to the spot
A day before their 2002 World Cup quarterfinal against Spain, then South Korea coach Guus Hiddink made his players walk from one penalty spot to the other inside an empty stadium. It was Hiddink’s way of making his players ready for the shorter, but tense, walk from the centre of the field to the spot during a match. South Korea went on to beat Spain via a shootout in that match, and in two decades since, reams have been written about the mental aspect of penalties.
Quite often, the confidence and body language of the player during that walk is a giveaway. England coach Gareth Southgate, while talking about his missed penalty at Euro 1996, told the Happy Minds podcast: “In what is a team environment, you are suddenly the centre of attention with 90,000 people just looking at the walk from the centre circle to the penalty spot. It’s easy then for the brain to take into it things you can’t control just because you haven’t been through that process before… the time I got to the ball, to get it on the target would be an achievement in itself because the psychological then affects physical movements.”
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Should the best player take the first kick?
It’s not just the walk, the waiting time before the referee blows his whle can also be excruciating for the penalty taker and only adds to the tension. The waiting time is slightly longer for the first kick, as the referee has a customary word with the two goalkeepers, reminding them of the rules.
So, should a team save its best penalty taker for last or have him taking the first shot?
Quite often, teams nominate their penalty takers in reverse order of their abilities – the fifth-best goes first, fourth-best goes second, and so on. It might be a safe strategy, but not always the smartest one.
For instance, Messi took the first penalty against the Netherlands, scored, calmed the nerves of his teammates, and Argentina went on to win. Brazil, on the other hand, saved Neymar for the last but the match was over the time his number came. “He [Neymar] is the fifth and decisive penalty taker,” Brazil’s former coach Tite said after the defeat to Croatia. “The player who has more quality and the mentality to step up then is under the greatest pressure.”
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In all four matches that have gone into tie-breakers in Qatar, teams that missed the first penalty went on to lose – Japan, Spain, Brazil and the Netherlands.
Placement of a perfect penalty
Statics show that penalties aimed at the top corners are saved the least because it is hard for goalkeepers to cover such a big area. In the Euro 96 shootouts, when Gareth Southgate missed his kick, 9 out of the 11 penalties were hit in the top corners. Southgate went low, and his attempt was saved.
Penalties taken low along the surface have a high success rate as well but only when they are aimed at the side netting and hit with a lot of venom, like Criano Ronaldo did in his prime. But as penalties in this World Cup have proven, accuracy is the key if the shot is taken low to the ground. Slightly weak and it’ll be saved, as Japan and Spain learnt.
An overwhelming number of penalties in Qatar have been hit low. And since they weren’t placed properly – were too close to the goalkeeper – or were feebly hit, the shots were saved.
Going low could have been out of compulsion rather than choice. Early into the tournament, Kieran Trippier had said the nature of the ball being used at the World Cup made players wary of putting too much power behind shots. “I feel the ball is a bit lighter. It feels like if you put too much power on, it will just fly away,” he had said.
Watching Kane’s penalty fly over the bar underlines why players are reluctant to lift the ball off the ground.
Argentina’s goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez saves a kick of Steven Berghuis of the Netherlands during penalty shootout the World Cup quarterfinal soccer match between the Netherlands and Argentina, at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, Qatar, Saturday, Dec. 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)
Improving goalies, analytics and VAR
During the World Cup qualifying inter-continental playoffs, goalkeeper Andrew Redmayne was Australia’s hero. A substitute, he was introduced just for the tie-breakers and his antics threw off the Peruvian players as Australia won in sudden death. There’s another thing that Redmayne did to rattle opponents.
Peru goalkeeper Pedro Gallese had notes on all Australian penalty-takers pasted on his water bottle. He’d read those instructions before every kick and would dive accordingly. Redmayne casually walked up and threw Gallese’s bottle away from the goal. Without the well-researched notes prepared the team’s technical staff to refer to, it was down to pure guesswork and Gallese couldn’t stop the Australians.
In a bid to find those fine margins over penalty-takers, the research that goes behind each spot kick – to study the patterns and behaviour under pressure – is immaculate. But it’s also up to the goalkeepers to remember the instructions.
Apart from the analysis, another reason is attributed to the growing number of saves – VAR. As per rules, a penalty is retaken if a goalkeeper moves off his line before the shot is taken. According to John Harrison, head of data science at goalkeeper.com, the rule ends up helping the custodians as it ‘maximises reaction time’.
“The additional disadvantage of the outlawed strategy is that the shuffle forwards often wrong-foots the goalkeeper,” Harrison wrote on his website, adding that goalkeepers have had to make technical adjustments which have only improved them.
“The one disadvantage of this dummying strategy is that it forces a reduction in the goalkeeper’s dive range unless they can get a second step in,” he wrote. “However, this is only an issue if the penalty is placed near the corner, and against strikers who stutter in their run-up, concealing the direction of your dive is often far more important than dive range.”