How can India qualify for WTC final 2025 if they lose/draw Melbourne Test vs Australia? Qualification scenarios explained | Cricket News

India’s ICC World Test Championship final qualification chances seem to grow slimmer as they feature in the fourth Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test against Australia at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Falling behind in the Boxing Day Test a considerable margin within the first two days, it is highly improbably for India to fashion a win from the current position. The other two remaining outcomes will mean India’s WTC 2025 final chances will hit a major roadblock before the New Year’s Test in Sydney, starting January 3.
India’s WTC points percentage (PCT) slipped from 57.29 to 55.88 after the draw in Brisbane last week. Rohit Sharma’s remained in the third spot on the WTC standings, behind Australia (58.89) and South Africa (63.33), who are poised to secure their berth in next year’s final at Lord’s if they beat Pakan this week in the ongoing Test at Centurion.
Can India qualify for WTC final if they lose or draw Melbourne Test?
Only eight points, equivalent to two draws, separate Australia and India on the WTC standings. While India have only one game to go after the MCG Test, Australia have two more matches against Sri Lanka left in this edition. Both teams will contest for a total of 228 points, increasing the importance of their two head-to-head contests in Melbourne and Sydney.
India’s WTC final scenarios

If INDIA lose MCG Test but finish series 2-2 with win in Sydney, India will finish their cycle with 126 points and a 55.26 PCT. Australia can then overhaul India with two draws or at least win in Sri Lanka.
If INDIA lose MCG Test but finish series 1-2 with draw in Sydney, they will end up with 118 points, which Australia would have overhauled the end of the series.
If India draw MCG and Sydney Tests, they will finish on 122 points and a 53.50 PCT. Australia will then require at least win in their two matches in Sri Lanka to pip India and qualify for the final.
If India draw MCG Test and win in Sydney, they will finish on 130 points with a 57.01 PCT. Australia will then need to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in Sri Lanka to qualify for the WTC final.

WTC Points Table ahead of IND vs AUS 4th Test Day 3, as of December 27, 2024

Pos.

Team

Matches

Points Played

Points

PCT

P
W
L
D

1
South Africa
10
6
3
1
120
76
63.33

2
Australia
15
9
4
2
180
102
60.71

3
India
17
9
6
2
204
110
57.29

4
New Zealand
14
7
7
0
168
81
48.21

5
Sri Lanka
11
5
6
0
132
60
45.45

6
England
22
11
10
1
264
114
43.18

7
Pakan
10
4
6
0
120
40
33.33

8
Bangladesh (E)
12
4
8
0
144
45
31.25

9
West Indies (E)
11
2
7
2
132
32
24.24

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