IPL Eliminator: Five-time champions Mumbai Indians hold edge in do-or-die game but Lucknow Super Giants are no pushovers

This must feel like déjà vu for Lucknow Super Giants. In their maiden season last year, despite picking up 18 points in the league stage, they had ended up third in the points table on net run rate. It allowed them only one shot to make the final and their campaign ended in the Eliminator against Royal Challengers Bangalore.
They went back to the drawing board, sought reinforcements, played their home games on dodgy pitches and once again finished third on net run-rate. It has put them again in the Eliminator, this time against Mumbai Indians – a team that has won 10 of the 13 matches in the play-offs since 2013.
Unlike last season, where Lucknow looked the part, this year their campaign has been largely start-stop. In a season where no team won more than three matches on the bounce, Lucknow had to wait till the business end to get the momentum, which they have been seeking since the start. After getting off to a winning start, only once did they win two consecutive matches, going on a win-loss ride before changing the tide against Hyderabad.
And what can’t be overlooked is how each of those three wins have come on tracks that have been vastly different to the ones they started off with in Lucknow, where the black soil pitches made it hard work for batsmen. And they have also done it while missing the services of their captain KL Rahul – which appears a blessing in disguise.
Standing in Lucknow’s way are the giants of the IPL — Mumbai Indians — who have once again put behind a torrid start to recover when it matters the most.
If Lucknow played on slow surfaces at home, Mumbai, sans a strong attack, chose to repose their faith in an aggressive batting unit that has powered them into the playoffs after finishing rock-bottom last year. For a team that has pocketed 5 IPL titles since 2013, getting past the group stages must feel all the more special this season. Apart from missing out on the services of Jasprit Bumrah, Mumbai have also had to make do without England fast bowler Jofra Archer for the majority of the matches this season. The crushing loss they suffered against Chennai Super Kings in the first week of May looks a long time ago as Mumbai have found new heroes in Nehal Wadhera, Akash Madhwal towards the business end. And more than all of this, the return to form of Suryakumar Yadav felt as if Mumbai found an extra batsman.
In that aspect, Rohit Sharma has been tested to the limit as a skipper this season. Unlike 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, where they bulldozed their way to the title – overcoming winless streaks at the start – on the back of a strong all-round squad, this time Rohit has been forced to marshal his resources judiciously this season. With a weak attack, it was a bit of a gamble for Mumbai to opt for flat decks at home, where it neutralised even the opposition’s bowling unit. And now, here they are in Chennai, a venue where the pitches could force them to alter their game plan.
Though the MA Chidambaram Stadium has changed its characterics slightly this season, the pitches are once again beginning to get slower. In conditions where spinners tend to bowl the majority of the overs, Mumbai will have to bank on the experience of Piyush Chawla and hope Kumar Kartikeya too brings out his A game. Mumbai may be even tempted to consider one of Hrithik Shokeen or Sams Mulani. But against a Lucknow batting line-up that has enough firepower in their ranks in the form of Quinton de Kock, Marcus Stoinis, Nicholas Pooran, how Mumbai’s spinners perform against them could ultimately settle the contest.
Although Lucknow have huffed and puffed their way to Chennai, unlike Mumbai, they have a more balanced team, which should definitely give them the edge. While they have not missed Rahul’s absence at the top, they had to rejig at the top with De Kock being the preferred option over Kyle Mayers. With Gautam Gambhir at the helm as team mentor, Lucknow have also been one of the most strategically smart teams around, using the match-ups and Impact Player rule to good effect. If Lucknow have worked out its strategies well, Mumbai are the pioneers when it comes to relying on data analytics and match-ups. In a format where tactical nuances tend to give a cutting edge, Lucknow vs Mumbai offers a treat.