Video Points to Possible US Tomahawk Strike Near IRGC Base

Fresh video suggests the United States might have carried out a strike in southern Iran that hit close to a school where more than 165 people were killed in an unexplained explosion during the early days of the ongoing Middle East war. The footage examined investigative group Bellingcat appears to show a US-made Tomahawk cruise missile striking a compound near the school in Minab in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province.The blast occurred on February 28 at a school situated next to a base of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
Experts who spoke to news agency Associated Press and reviewed satellite imagery said the school was likely hit as part of a rapid series of strikes targeting the near compound.
A US official familiar with internal discussions told the AP that the strike was probably carried out the United States. The official requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly about the issue.
 
 

 
Live Prices — March 10, 2026

10 days that upended global energy markets

Brent Crude
$98.96
▲ +40% from pre-war

WTI Crude
$103.07
▲ +34% since Feb 28

WTI Overnight High
$119.48
Mon night, then pulled back

US Gas Avg
$3.45
▲ from ~$3.00 pre-strikes

Brent & WTI Crude — Feb 24 to Mar 10, 2026
Tap any point · Shaded = active conflict · WTI spike on Mar 9 reflects $119.48 overnight high

Key Events

Feb 24
Trump State of the Union
Trump boasts of gas below $2.30/gal. National average ~$2.92. Oil market stable, Brent near 4-month lows.
Brent $70.77 · WTI $67.50

Feb 28 — Operation Epic Fury
🔴 U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran Begin
Joint airstrikes hit Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed. Oil surges 8% overnight.
Brent: ~$78 · WTI: ~$74

Mar 1–2 — Days 2–3
🔴 Strait of Hormuz Closed
Iran shuts Hormuz — disrupting 20% of global supply, more than double the 1956 Suez Crisis record. Qatar gas facilities and Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery struck. Iraq cuts 1.5M bpd.
Brent: $81.40

Mar 3 — Day 4
Goldman Sachs Issues Warning
Analysts warn of “triple-digit territory” if disruption exceeds 4 weeks. $13/bbl war risk premium priced in. Fair value without war: ~$65.
Brent: ~$83

Mar 5–6 — Days 6–7
🔴 WTI — Largest Weekly Gain Since 1983
G7 signals strategic reserve release. US gas crosses $3.19 — Trump’s pre-war gains fully erased. European gas near double pre-war levels.
WTI: ~$91

Mar 8–9 — Days 9–10
🟢 Trump Signals Possible End + Volatile Session
Trump says operation is “ahead of schedule.” WTI rockets to $119.48 overnight, then slumps back to ~$96–100 in a manic Monday session. Brent hit $108 before retreating.
Brent: $101–108 · WTI high: $119.48

Mar 10 — Today · Live
⚡ Brent $98.96 · WTI $103.07
Prices stable but elevated. G7 finance miners meet to coordinate SPR releases. Iran’s new supreme leader announced. EU oil coordination group convenes. Market still pricing prolonged disruption.
Brent: $98.96 · WTI: $103.07

Analyst Scenarios

🔴 Prolonged War
$120+
Hormuz stays closed 8+ weeks. Brent tests $120. Global recession risk.

🟡 Base Case
$95–110
SPR releases stabilise at 4–6 weeks. Gas ~$3.50–4.00/gal through Q2.

🟢 Quick End
$70–80
Rapid ceasefire, Hormuz reopens. Goldman fair value ~$65 resumes.

Sources: Axios · Investing.com · OilPrice.com · Bloomberg · Goldman Sachs · AAA · Rapidan Energy GroupLive prices as of Mar 10, 2026. Markets remain highly volatile. WTI overnight high $119.48 before pullback to ~$103.
 
Video released Iranian news agency
The video, recorded on the day of the incident, was released Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency on Sunday. It shows a missile striking a building and sending a large plume of dark smoke into the air.
AP verified the location of the footage and reported that it was filmed near the school, at a time when smoke was already rising from the surrounding area. Satellite images of the compound match visible elements in the footage, including a flat-roofed structure, near power lines and parked vehicles.

New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an IRGC facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school, where 175 people were reportedly killed. pic.twitter.com/4jBXrNcRJO
— Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 8, 2026
The video was also geolocated NBC News. It said a Tomahawk missile appeared to be striking an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound, which was located next to the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school. Witnesses NBC News spoke to said the strike destroyed the school trapped children and school staffers under the debris. Providing graphic details, the news website quoted witnesses as saying: “People were pulling out children’s arms and legs… people were pulling out severed heads.”Story continues below this ad
Among the nations involved in the Middle East conflict, only the United States is known to possess and deploy this weapon.
Tomahawk missiles are manufactured Raytheon in Phoenix and the US only sells them to the UK, Australia, Japan, and the Netherlands.
What Trump said about the Iran school strike
Speaking at a press briefing on Monday, Trump suggested Iran could possess Tomahawk missiles. The weapon is produced US defence contractor Raytheon and sold to allied nations such as Japan and Australia. However, there is no evidence that Iran has obtained the system.
Trump argued that the missile is widely used internationally and said Iran might also have access to it.

Reporter: You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war.
Why are you the only person saying this?
Trump: Because I just don’t know enough about it. pic.twitter.com/5sueGBgFHT
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026
“Whether it is Iran or somebody else … a Tomahawk is very generic,” he said.Story continues below this ad
When asked why no other officials in his adminration had made the same claim, Trump replied that he did not have full knowledge of the matter.
A Tomahawk missile used the US (Wikimedia Commons).
“Because I just do not know enough about it,” he said, adding that he would accept the findings of any official report on the incident.
Earlier, Trump had been asked if the United States was responsible for the explosion. Without presenting evidence, he said he believed Iran was responsible for the attack, claiming Iranian weapons systems are often inaccurate.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also addressed the matter, saying the US was reviewing the incident.Story continues below this ad
First clear indication of munition type used
The identification marks the first clear indication of the type of munition used in the strike.
US Central Command has previously acknowledged using Tomahawk missiles during the conflict. It also released an image showing the USS Spruance — operating as part of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group — launching a Tomahawk missile on February 28. The naval group was positioned within range of the area where the school was hit.
Bellingcat said the newly surfaced footage appears to challenge US President Donald Trump’s claim over the weekend that Iran was responsible for the deadly explosion.
Several factors have fuelled speculation that the strike may have been conducted US forces.Story continues below this ad
One of them is the decision the US military to begin an internal assessment of the incident. Under Pentagon guidelines related to civilian harm mitigation, such reviews are typically initiated when investigators believe US forces may have been involved.
Trevor Ball, who identifies as a researcher at Bellingcat, dismissed the claim of an Iranian missile being used in the attack, saying: “These missiles have a bottom mounted engine, as opposed to the Tomahawk whose engine is internal to the main missile body, with a small air intake.”

Quite a few replies are saying this video shows an Iranian Soumar or similar missile. This is incorrect. These missiles have a bottom mounted engine, as opposed to the Tomahawk whose engine is internal to the main missile body, with a small air intake. https://t.co/emKMWDYv03 pic.twitter.com/BpmS6HbW8c
— Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 9, 2026
‘We fight to win’: Pete Hegseth
At a March 2 press conference, Hegseth defended the US campaign, saying the country was carrying out what he described as the most lethal and precise air-power operation ever undertaken.
He also criticised restrictions typically placed on military engagements.
“There are no stupid rules of engagement,” Hegseth said. “No politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we do not waste time or lives.”