Which teams will qualify for the World Cup and can they cause an upset

The schedule for the 2023 ICC World Cup has been released, but two of the teams that will take part are yet to be decided. The qualifiers of the World Cup are underway in Zimbabwe six teams are left in contention.
Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe have looked a class above the tournament so far whilst two-time World Cup winners West Indies continue to lose their aura having already lost to the hosts and the Netherlands. If the men from the Caribbean miss out on a ticket to India, it would be the second successive tournament after the 2022 T20 World Cup, where they won’t feature in the main event.
Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe also have the advantage of carrying four points to the Super Six round from the group stage.
What is carrying points forward?
Out of five teams in a group, three advance to the next round. The points taken a team from matches against the other two teams who have qualified from the pool are carried with them. For instance, Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka won all their games and ended up with eight points. However, they will only carry four points forward from the teams which have qualified from their respective groups along with them.
On the other hand, West Indies carry no points to the next round as their wins in the group phase came against Nepal and the United States with neither qualifying for the Super Six. The Netherlands and Scotland carry two points with them. This is the reason why Shai Hope’s men are at a significant disadvantage.
However, in 2019, Afghanan entered the Super Six with zero points but managed to be runners-up in the Qualifier and took part in the World Cup in England.
How can the West Indies pull off a similar feat this year?
They need to win all their fixtures in the Super Six – against Sri Lanka, Oman and Scotland – and hope other results go their way. i.e. only one other team can exceed six points, which is the maximum the Windies can get to. However, West Indies have not clicked as a unit in the tournament so far and winning all their games itself will be a big challenge.
What does this mean for India in the World Cup?
If West Indies manage to sneak through, they will be Qualifier 1 irrespective of where they finish whilst Sri Lanka will be Qualifier 2. India will play both qualifying teams at the back end of the tournament.
A match against Sri Lanka at Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium will be a re-match of the 2011 final. Facing the islanders in subcontinent conditions can be a challenging proposition, as they recently found out in the 2022 Asia Cup.
Facing the Windies in Bengaluru in their final group game will be a tough prospect for India. With the power-packed line-up on a flat wicket and small boundaries, the Men in Maroon might be capable of upsetting the hosts.

However, Zimbabwe is highly likely to qualify for the World Cup. Their horic upset of Pakan at the 2022 T20 World Cup at Perth has been an indication of how far they have improved as a side in recent times. With the experience of Craig Ervine and the flair of Sikander Raza, they are a force to be reckoned with and hosts might need to be wary of the side.
Netherlands, Oman and Scotland have an outside chance, and should they qualify, India would be looking at these games as an easy two points.