Wimbledon Final: Is Carlos Alcaraz, the challenger, ready to dethrone Novak Djokovic?

Wimbledon has hosted major changing of the guard moments in men’s tennis in recent years.A wide-eyed Roger Federer defeated Pete Sampras on the ground he was most dominant in 2001. A brawny, defiant Rafael Nadal getting the better of Federer, in their third successive final, in an all-time classic in 2008.Try as one may, a win for Carlos Alcaraz, the 20-year-old World No. 1, over the ever-present king of this sport Novak Djokovic, in the final on Sunday, will feel like an equally weighty moment.

We’re hungry for it.#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/fnPAH8NuJY
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 14, 2023
Even more so, considering Djokovic has looked as peerless as he has been throughout any of his last four consecutive title runs at SW19. The Serb has not lost a completed match there since 2016, and has not lost at Centre Court in over a decade. Those wide-spraying legs continue to dwarf the court. Those commanding groundstrokes continue to dominate rallies. The serve is improved and solid. The return is still unmatchable.
The gulf in experience and pedigree is enormous. Djokovic enters his ninth Wimbledon final this year, Alcaraz will be playing just his 12th Wimbledon match. After making strides on grass, and getting past a tricky draw, Alcaraz will have a point to prove, considering their last meeting. The hype for the French Open semifinal five weeks ago was enormous, but Alcaraz let tightness and nerves affect him, cramping after two high-quality sets to lose in four.
Disruptor
Battles of attrition are Djokovic’s bread and butter. The Serb remains an expert in winning marathon battles from the baseline, and even more so on grass, given his well-formed game full of backhand slices and flat groundstrokes.
For all of Alcaraz’s showmanship and shotmaking ability, he is able to do the simple things really well too. He can take control of rallies from the baseline with his enormous forehand, his serve is underrated, and he boasts of high footspeed and stamina. But those long, arduous rallies from the baseline will not see much success. Djokovic regularly finds a stream of things that make him uncomfortable and disrupt his rhythm – greasy grass, hecklers in the crowd, questionable umpiring calls – but it is hardly an opponent.

Blockbuster 🏆@carlosalcaraz and @DjokerNole coming soon… 🔜#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/Z0ZTEt8W3Q
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 14, 2023
But unlike the 20-something challengers that Djokovic has swatted aside at this stage in the past few years, it is Alcaraz’s creativity that might give him an edge.
His net game is very good, he throws in the serve and volley with regular effect. The sheer speed and power of his forehand pushes opponents well behind the baseline to open up the court for him to take control and throw in his signature drop shots.
These are all useful tools if he is to stop Djokovic from building that easy momentum he uses to overwhelm most opponents.
Return with interest
Given that Alcaraz will be playing against one of the most legendary returners in the sport, his own serve will need to stand the test. But in recent times, he has shown how he uses his own return to notch runaway wins.
Alcaraz took on 2021 final Matteo Berrettini, fellow teenage sensation Holger Rune, and former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev this week, each of whom had first serve bombs capable of collecting easy free points. But it is when they faltered that Alcaraz made inroads.
Across the three matches, he won at least 50% of points on the opponent’s second serve. In the semifinal, Medvedev won only 10 out of 33 points on second serve.

Sunday 16 July. Centre Court. No.1 vs No.2.#Wimbledon | @carlosalcaraz | @DjokerNole pic.twitter.com/DWTjbrwr1u
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 14, 2023
stepping in ever so slightly into the baseline, he takes advantage of the lower pace of the second serve to smash the ball back – his backhand return down the line in particular – and create opportunities. The suffocating quality of the shot is evident, he has fashioned 26 breaks of serve in six matches this fortnight.
Djokovic can serve down big second serves, but not with regularity. Across his six matches at Wimbledon, on average, his second serve has gone down in pace an average of 36 kmph as compared to his first. Unless he lifts those speeds to combat Alcaraz in particular, there will be chances there.
This will be one of the most anticipated tennis events in recent memory, and Alcaraz has the game to make a match of this. He can serve well, return big, dominate with his forehand, throw in the variety with drop shots, slices, and serve and volley.
But that will only be half the battle won. The real test will be if he can come in clutch in the key moments, when Djokovic raises his game time and time again. The crucial break points, the tiebreakers, the momentum shifts. No matter how enthralling the contest, those moments will decide if Alcaraz is still in challenger mode, or if he is ready to occupy the throne.