World Test Championship 2025: India back on top but can they qualify? Which other teams have a chance? Explaining the scenarios | Cricket News

World Test Championship 2025: With 17 Tests remaining in the World Test Championship Cycle 2025 the race to remain in the top two is heating up. Unlike previous iterations when two teams separate themselves from the others this time, there are quite a few teams that can make the final.
India (Tests remaining 4)
India currently is at the top of the WTC table with 61.11 PCT after their thumping win over Australia 295 runs at Perth. Australia’s corresponding numbers dipped from 62.5 to 57.69.
India cannot afford another loss in their remaining four games to reach the WTC final on their terms. With five wins in Australia, India can, at best, finish with 158 points and a points PCT of 69.29.
Australia (Tests remaining 6)
Of all the teams Australia has the most number of games left and has a proper shot to get into the final of WTC. However, the loss to India has made their chances difficult as well. For them to have a shot to qualify without depending on other teams they have to win the remaining five out of their remaining games to finish ahead of South Africa and New Zealand even if the other two sides manage to win all their games.
New Zealand (Tests remaining 3)
The thing with New Zealand is they were never in contention until their unlikely win against India. However, despite that even if they manage to pull off another whitewash against England in the home series they will get to 64.29 which will not assure them a place in the final as South Africa can get to 69.44 and if Australia wins their next five games even in that case New Zealand will be out.
Sri Lanka (Tests remaining 4)
Sri Lanka who are currently playing a Test match in South Africa too have a strong chance to make it to the final after their recent performances. They find themselves sitting third in the table at a points percentage of 55.56% on third spot with four Test matches remaining in their cycle.
South Africa (Tests remaining 4)
For South Africa to qualify for the WTC, it is imperative for them to win the two Test matches against Sri Lanka, and their remaining two Test matches against Pakan at home. This would take their point percentage to 69.11%, which only Australia would be able to cross the end of the cycle.
On the other hand, if they end up with even one draw and three wins, it would build their winning percentage up to 63.89%, and a loss with three wins would leave them at 61.11%, which could positively be crossed New Zealand, and two out of Australia, India, and Sri Lanka.
Updated WTC points table

Pos.

Team

Matches

Ded.

PTS contested

Points

PCT

P
W
L
D

1
India
15
9
5
1
2
180
110
61.11

2
Australia
13
8
4
1
10
156
90
57.69

3
Sri Lanka
9
5
4
0
0
108
60
55.56

4
New Zealand
11
6
5
0
0
132
72
54.54

5
South Africa
8
4
3
1
0
96
52
54.16

6
England
19
9
9
1
19
228
93
40.79

7
Pakan
10
4
6
0
8
120
40
33.33

8
Bangladesh
10
3
7
0
3
120
33
27.5

9
West Indies
9
1
6
2
0
108
20
18.52

Apart from these top 5, it is highly unlikely for other teams to make it into top four