Why the Pakan-Taliban ‘Strategic Partnership’ Just Collapsed Into Chaos

Pakan-Afghanan war: Pakan’s air strikes on Taliban positions in Afghanan mark the sharpest rupture yet between the two actors once seen as strategic partners. What looks like a sudden escalation is actually the result of years of mrust, militant spillover and collapsing security understandings along one of the world’s most volatile borders.The Pakani attacks on early Friday came after Afghanan launched an attack on Pakani border forces, the officials said. Both sides reported heavy losses in the fighting, which Pakan’s defence miner said amounted to an “open war”. Tensions have been heating up since Pakan launched air strikes on militant targets in Afghanan last weekend.

How many died?
The Pakani government has claimed that its forces had killed at least 133 Taliban members in cross-border strikes inside Afghanan, as it responded to Taliban border attacks. Mosharraf Zaidi, a spokesman for Pakan prime miner on foreign media, said in an update issued at 3:45 am that Pakani counterstrikes against what he described as Taliban military targets in Afghanan were continuing.
“A total of 133 Afghan Taliban are confirmed killed, more than 200 wounded,” Zaidi said, adding that additional casualties were estimated in strikes on targets in Kabul, Paktia and Kandahar.
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He said 27 Taliban posts had been destroyed and nine captured. The strikes, he added, had also destroyed two corps headquarters, three brigade headquarters, two ammunition depots, one logics base, three battalion headquarters, two sector headquarters and more than 80 tanks, artillery pieces and armoured personnel carriers.

Pakan described the operations as an “immediate and effective response to aggression.”
The claims could not be independently verified, and the Taliban have not confirmed the figures. In statements issued earlier, the Taliban said they had carried out retaliatory attacks against Pakani military positions, claiming to have killed 55 Pakani soldiers and seized multiple outposts along the border. Pakan has not acknowledged those reported losses.Story continues below this ad
Cross-border militancy and the TTP problem
At the heart of the conflict is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakan (TTP), the Pakani Taliban — a militant group — Islamabad says operates from Afghan soil.
Pakani officials claim they had “irrefutable evidence” linking militants based in Afghanan to a fresh wave of attacks and suicide bombings targeting security forces. One recent assault in Bajaur that killed 11 personnel and two civilians was allegedly carried out an Afghan national and claimed the TTP.
Islamabad’s position is clear: the Afghan Taliban either cannot or will not control anti-Pakan militants using its territory. Kabul denies the charge, insing it does not allow attacks against neighbours from its soil.
This disagreement has steadily transformed from diplomatic friction into kinetic confrontation.Story continues below this ad
From allies to adversaries
Pakan initially welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, expecting a friendly government in Kabul that would stabilise the frontier. However, the relationship deteriorated quickly. Militancy inside Pakan has surged since 2022, with attacks the TTP and Baloch insurgents rising sharply, according to conflict monitoring data cited news agency Reuters.
Islamabad believes the Taliban’s ideological affinity with the TTP makes decisive action unlikely. Kabul, meanwhile, accuses Pakan of harbouring Islamic State militants, a charge Islamabad rejects.
Collapse of ceasefire diplomacy
The latest strikes also reflect the failure of repeated attempts to manage tensions through negotiation. Border clashes in October killed dozens before mediation Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia produced a fragile ceasefire. But the truce collapsed as militant attacks continued and trust eroded.
With diplomacy exhausted and domestic pressure mounting, Pakan appears to have opted for escalation, targeting not just suspected militant camps but Taliban military infrastructure itself.Story continues below this ad
Strategic calculus
Pakan’s decision is driven multiple overlapping calculations:

Security credibility at home: Rising militant attacks have made internal security a political priority. Demonstrating decisive action helps the military project control.
Coercive diplomacy: striking Taliban assets directly, Islamabad aims to compel Kabul to act against the TTP — or at least raise the cost of inaction.
Border control doctrine: Pakan has long struggled to manage the rugged Durand Line frontier. Military action reflects a shift toward unilateral enforcement.

Why is the risk of escalation real?
Despite Pakan’s overwhelming military advantage, including hundreds of combat aircraft and a vastly larger force, the Taliban bring asymmetric strength. The group’s guerrilla warfare experience, hardened over decades of conflict, makes prolonged low-intensity confrontation likely.
Who are the Pakani Taliban?
The TTP was formed in 2007 several militant outfits active in northwest Pakan. ‌It is commonly known as the Pakani Taliban. The TTP has attacked markets, mosques, airports, military bases, police stations and also gained territory – mostly along the border with Afghanan, but also deep inside Pakan, including the Swat Valley.
The group was behind the ‌2012 attack on then schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai, ​who received the ​Nobel Peace Prize two ​years later.Story continues below this ad
The TTP also fought alongside the Afghan Taliban against US-led forces in Afghanan and hosted Afghan fighters in Pakan. Pakan has launched military operations against the TTP on its own soil with limited success, although an ​offensive that ended in 2016 drastically reduced attacks till a few years ago.
What happens next?
Pakan is likely to intensify its military campaign, analysts say, while Kabul’s retaliation could come in the way of raids on border posts and more cross-border guerrilla attacks to target security forces. On paper, there is a wide mismatch between the military capabilities of two sides. At 172,000, the Taliban have ‌less than a third of ⁠Pakan’s personnel.
The Taliban do possess at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters, but their condition is unknown, and they have no fighter jets or effective air force.
Pakan’s armed forces include more than 600,000 active personnel, have ​more than 6,000 armoured fighting vehicles and more than 400 combat aircraft, according to 2025 data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The country is also nuclear-armed.
(With inputs from Reuters)